Rising Costs, Stronger Communities

A dated snapshot, not a forecast for every family

Economic data checked: September 27, 2026. The latest EIA weekly release available at this review reported a U.S. on-highway diesel average of $6.529 per gallon for September 21, up $0.244 from the week before and $2.780 from a year earlier. It is a national retail average including taxes, not a local quote. [S1]

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that August 2026 consumer prices for all urban consumers rose 3.4% over twelve months before seasonal adjustment and 0.4% during August after seasonal adjustment. These are different measures of U.S. price changes, neither a September reading nor a measurement of FBA households. Inflation describes how prices change across a basket; it is not a separate fee to add to fuel, fertilizer or tariff percentages. [S2]

Fertilizer evidence points in more than one direction. The World Bank's September 2 monthly update says its global fertilizer price index eased 1.9% in August. Its April outlook had forecast a 31% average increase in 2026 under assumptions about energy and shipping disruptions. The forecast is not an observed September increase or a prediction that U.S. groceries will rise by 31%. A one-month decline can coexist with a high level or difficult sourcing. [S3][S4]

Fertilizers are not one market. Nitrogen production uses natural gas as a major input; phosphate and potash have different production and trade patterns. Diesel adds farm operating and transportation costs, but it is not the same as natural-gas feedstock. CoBank's August analysis projects elevated prices, especially phosphates, through 2028. That is CoBank's outlook and horizon, not a universal shortage or the World Bank forecast. A farmer may be able to buy an input but find it unaffordable, may face local unavailability, or may receive it too late for the intended application. Those are distinct risks. [S5][S6]

How separate pressures travel through a supply chain

Fuel, agricultural inputs and applicable import duties can enter at different points. A producer decides whether to absorb an increase, alter an order, change a supplier or pass some cost to a wholesaler. A wholesaler and retailer make their own decisions. Existing inventory, fixed-price contracts, competition, margins, harvest cycles, product substitutions and customer demand can delay or limit any price change. A 10% duty on one covered component does not mean a 10% rise in an entire finished product or service.

Hypothetical fuel illustration. A 500-mile trip by a truck averaging 6 miles per gallon uses about 83.33 gallons. A $1-per-gallon diesel increase adds about $83.33 to that trip's fuel cost before other expenses. The price of any one delivered item depends on how many orders share the load, contracts, carrier margins and cost sharing. This is arithmetic for understanding a pathway, not measured platform savings.

Our communities are diverse. Some households have reserves; others have little room after essentials. A family with less financial cushion has fewer easy ways to absorb a higher grocery or repair bill. A small business with thin margins and little cash on hand may have to choose between raising a price, reducing another expense, or delaying investment. These mechanisms do not establish that every FBA household is poor or every FBA business is affected equally. The Federal Reserve's September 2026 state exposure note uses 2023 consumption and import data; it does not measure FBA-specific losses or 2026 household bills. [S18]

Tariffs: what they mean for our households and businesses

A tariff is an import duty on a covered good. Under U.S. customs rules, the importer owes duties to customs and may pay through a broker; paying a broker does not erase the importer's liability if customs has not been paid. The importer depends on the transaction and need not be the final retailer or a U.S.-owned business. A foreign government does not automatically pay the U.S. customs bill. The economic burden can be shared: exporters may lower prices, importers may absorb part, and distributors, retailers or customers may carry part through later prices. [S12]

A local store can feel this without importing directly. A domestic wholesaler might buy imported finished goods or goods made with imported inputs, then quote an FBA retailer a new price. An auto shop might face a covered replacement part; an IT provider, a device; a contractor, materials; a restaurant, equipment or packaging; a manufacturer, components; and a farm, machinery parts. The service labor itself is not thereby subject to an import duty. FBA ownership, a U.S. address, and a U.S. distributor do not establish where a good or its inputs were made. Direct and indirect exposure differ. Federal Reserve staff explain these channels in their price study. [S16]

A single firm might face a carrier fuel surcharge, a more expensive farm input and duty-related costs on a covered purchased item. Those are separate causes. Natural-gas feedstock costs, weather, shipping disruption, export restrictions, sanctions and physical shortages are also separate from an import duty. No general country headline rate can be assigned to every bag of urea, potash, phosphate or every energy import. Antidumping and countervailing duties have their own product scope and procedures; a deposit rate is not necessarily the final liability. We have not certified a current fertilizer shipment or duty in this guide.

How price effects differ

The U.S. International Trade Commission's 2023 study of particular 2018–2021 Section 232 and 301 tariffs found importers bore nearly their full initial cost within that scope. It also found increased output for some covered domestic producers and higher costs or lower output for some firms using protected inputs. Its retrospective did not decide whether the tariffs were an overall net benefit to the U.S. economy. It is not a current retail pass-through rate. [S13]

Federal Reserve staff estimated that specified tariffs implemented through November 2025 gradually affected consumer prices observed through February 2026. The authors' method focuses on relative effects in selected price categories and excludes the effects of changes after a February 2026 court ruling. Their analysis is neither a September 2026 forecast nor an FBA household loss estimate. A one-time higher price level also differs from an inflation rate that keeps accelerating forever. Announced-policy rates, rates owed on an eligible shipment and realized trade-weighted averages are different quantities; import composition, timing and exclusions matter. [S16][S17]

Hypothetical duty calculation, not a live quotation: Suppose goods have an assumed customs value of $10,000 and a hypothetical additional 10% ad valorem duty. The added duty is $1,000. If freight and handling remain $1,000 and this example assumes no other duties, fees or taxes, the illustrated acquisition total moves from $11,000 to $12,000. That is about a 9.1% increase in this acquisition total, not automatically a 10% retail-price increase. The duty here applies to the assumed goods value, not the separate freight line, and is not collected again at every ordinary U.S. resale. Real customs valuation, fees, other measures and contracts can differ; a qualified broker should assess an actual import. No National FBA membership provides a tariff exemption or guaranteed lower landed cost.

For an actual quote, ask for the itemized delivered price, whether duties and freight are included, the importer and payment responsibilities, the quote's validity period, lead time, origin information and feasible substitutes. Compare quality and total cost. Diversifying suppliers can reduce dependence on one source but does not change the lawful duty owed on a covered import. Never use false origin claims, undervaluation or misclassification. A community-circulating economy can retain ownership and relationships while still buying imported inputs.

Where a pressure may appear—and a measured response

The table traces possible pathways for a particular household, institution or business. It does not claim that all FBA people face every effect, that all price changes have one cause, or that any named directory member has the supply chain described.

Respond with information, relationships and choice

Start with recurring needs: which purchases are essential, which can wait, and which have a repair option? Locate reliable suppliers and compare the whole delivered cost, including quality, timing and clear surcharges. Reduce avoidable delivery waste by grouping feasible orders or routes. Businesses can identify backup suppliers, agree on realistic repeat-order terms and evaluate lawful shared logistics or services where volumes justify them. These steps may improve planning; none guarantees lower prices.

Households should not stockpile on credit or spend beyond their means to make a statement. A dependable FBA-owned business can earn repeat support by offering value, clear terms and good service. A producer can earn trust by meeting specifications and delivery promises. To see how these choices fit into a larger strategy, read From Spending to Ownership, The Power of Everyday Support, and When FBA Businesses Do Business Together.